Starkville, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

194
FXUS64 KJAN 160038 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
738 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

The current forecast looks to be in good alignment headed into the
overnight hours. Refreshed winds, temps, and dew points for
overnight. Tonight`s low temps will threaten warm min temp
records in a few locations with temps about 10-12 degrees warmer
than normal for mid May. A warm and breezy day should develop for
Friday. High-res short-term guidance still indicates the
approaching disturbance from our west will not arrive with showers
or storms in our forecast area until after 7PM tomorrow. After
that time, expect a steady uptick of chances for showers and
storms in the ArkLaMiss Delta region gradually spreading across
areas of Mississippi north of Interstate 20 into early Saturday
morning. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Tonight and Friday: Warmer than normal and dry through the period.
Mid afternoon surface analysis had a ridge across our CWA from the
east and a low over the northern Plains with a trailing cold front
back across the central and southern Plains. The resulting pressure
gradient across our CWA was resulting in a gusty southwest to south
wind that will gradually subside this evening. This gusty south wind
has worked to increase low level moisture across our region and dew
points were running in the lower 70s. This increase in low level
moisture will help hold temperatures well above normal tonight. Mid
afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation
around a closed low spinning over the northern Plains. This low will
shift east through Friday and help drop the cold front into northern
Mississippi. The upper level ridging over our CWA today will have
shifted east leaving near zonal flow aloft. This will help the cold
front stall north of our CWA. There will be the potential for strong
to severe storms along and south of the cold front but, at this
time it appears any threat for severe weather in our north will hold
off until Friday night. /22/

Friday night through Wednesday night:

Quasi-zonal flow to prevail across the CWA through the weekend with
afternoon highs peaking into the upper 80s/lower 90s areawide. With
this quasi-zonal flow expected across the region, an unstable
airmass will begin to move into the region. This airmass, combined
with a couple of upper-level disturbances aloft and some
northerly moisture flow from the Tennessee Valley, will allow for
rain/storm chances across central/northern portions of our CWA
around the Friday night through Sunday evening/night timeframe. Strong
to severe thunderstorms will be possible.

The "Marginal" risk (1 out of 5) for Friday night has been
expanded slightly further south with the main hazards being
damaging winds and hail up to quarter size. In addition, the
"Slight" risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather that was upgraded
last forecast package has been expanded in our northwest today.
Damaging wind gust up to 60-70 mph and hail up to golf ball size
will be the main concerns for areas highlighted in our latest
graphic. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall at
times, with rainfall totals ranging between 0.5-1 inches. Given
that this system will moving quite fast across our CWA, flash
flooding concerns will be low; however, some localized flash
flooding cannot be ruled out.

Rain chances will begin to decrease Sunday night into the new work
week as a sfc ridge builds over the southeast CONUS. Quiet
conditions will continue across much of our forecast area with a
slight chance of scattered showers across portions of the Golden
Triangle heading into Monday afternoon. Quiet weather conditions
will occur across the area looking ahead into Tuesday morning as
future global guidance shows the ridge axis beginning to slowly push
east away from our forecast area giving us a small little break from
the rain.

A significant low pressure system over the Central Plains will push
east towards the Ohio River Valley region Tuesday afternoon/
evening. The associated cold front over southern Texas will track
east towards the southeast region late Tuesday evening. This
combined with southerly moisture flow from the Gulf will help
reintroduce scattered showers/t-storm chances across our entire CWA.
Storm chances will continue heading into Wednesday as the cold
pushes east across our forecast area. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

VFR conditions to start the period, with some gusty winds
gradually easing by 02Z Friday. Scattered to broken low stratus
with widespread MVFR ceilings expected by 09Z-12Z, mixing and
lifting between 14Z-17Z at the TAF sites. Gusty winds to return in
that time frame as ell, with gusts up to around 20-25 kts. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  90  74  91 /   0   0  20  30
Meridian      70  91  72  91 /   0   0  10  30
Vicksburg     73  90  74  91 /   0   0  20  20
Hattiesburg   72  93  74  94 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       73  89  75  91 /   0   0   0  10
Greenville    74  89  72  90 /  10  10  60  20
Greenwood     73  89  72  90 /  10  10  60  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/SW/NF